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Scoring Systems and Risk Stratification in Cirrhotic Patients with Acute Variceal Bleeding "Scoring in Variceal Bleeding"

Asmaa Naser Mohammad and Khairy Hammam Morsy.

Objectives: To find the most accurate, suitable and applicable scoring system used for prediction of outcome in cirrhotic patients with bleeding varices.

Methods: This prospective study included 120 cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding, admitted at Department of Tropical Medicine and Gastroenterology in Sohag University Hospital over a one-year period (1/2015 to 1/2016). Clinical, laboratory and endoscopic parameters were studied, Child–Pugh (CTP) classification score, Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score and AIMS65 score were calculated for all patients, univariate, multivariate analysis and performance was performed for all taken parameters and the scores.

Results: The 120 patients (92 male, 28 female) admitted during the study period, eight patients (6.67%) died in hospital. Higher age, presence of encephalopathy, rebleeding, and higher serum bilirubin were independent factors associated with higher hospital mortality. The largest area under the receiver operator curve (AUROC) was for AIMS65 score and SOFA score followed by MELD score and APACHEII score then Child score all of which achieved very good performance (AUROC > 0.8). AIMS 65 score has the best sensitivity, specificity negative and positive predictive values. Although AIMS65 score was not significantly different from MELD, SOFA, and APACHEII scores, it was the best among them in prediction of mortality.

Conclusions: AIMS65 score is best simple and applicable scoring system to independently predict mortality in those patients.